Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
