Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
